There used to be a time when we had conversations based on hard facts. That time is long gone. The hard fact is that the world politics is largely driven by organisations such as
OPEC+. If you see countries that are or were in conflict, you’ll see the role of these organisations in shaping up the future of other members or its neighbors within these organisations.
After the shameful atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US, the second world war ended abruptly. This created a large void in the world peace in years to come. Ever since the cold war started, the tussle between the US (NATO) and the Russian Federation (then Soviet Union) had only escalated. Despite its shameful acts, the US continues to enjoy the liberty of being the leader of the world. The rest of the world is just a bunch of countries that needs to choose side at critical times. The mainstream media is largely driven by the US or its NATO policies. The facts are mostly tossed around and twisted into Hollywood fiction. Ironically, most of us believe in the news fiction.
The recent events in
Ukraine is just another example of mistrust and bigotry of NATO. The US through its NATO policies had been luring
Ukraine to join NATO from as early as 1997. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation and US joined hands in shaping up the roadmap for cooperation. On 9 July 1997, the NATO-Ukraine Charter (NUC) was signed.
The US aggression in the eastern Europe has been a known and hard fact but also been twisted into a savior act by the world’s mainstream media. The motivation of the US to disrupt peace in the Eastern European, Central Asian, and South Caucasus regions comes from the fact that all these regions were once part of the Soviet Union.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the soviet countries are now divided into three different regions,
- Eastern Europe:
- Central Asia:
- South Caucasus:
A series of events afterwards gives a wider angle to the NATO strategies and its successions in Eastern Europe. In 1999, former communist countries such as
Hungary joined NATO followed by Poland.
Estonia became NATO members in 2004 along with
Georgia were offered NATO membership in 2008 but due to their constitution they couldn’t join NATO.
Croatia joined NATO in 2009.
The Russian Federation had been demanding NATO to respect the 1997 signed roadmap of cooperation. But, this fact had been ignored by the world (or say NATO) media time and again. Despite several warnings by the Russian Federation, the NATO or say the US had been exercising its notorious policies in the post-Soviet regions.
In 2020, the
Armenia conflict in the region intensified the US support to the
Azerbaijan making road inwards for a future NATO alliance. The civil unrest in
Belarus 2020 and in
Kazakhstan in 2022 are attempts to weaken power of the Russian Federation in the Eastern Europe.
When did Ukraine become an enemy of Russia?
By virtue of Ukraine’s
uti possidetis, the Crimean Peninsula became the part of Ukraine. The Russian intervention in 2014 and recognition of the Republic of Crimea is a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine strained relation. The US and other NATO members for the first time condemned Russian intervention which gave a false hope to Ukraine as a closer ally of NATO. After the failed attempts in 2008,
Ukraine amended the constitution and applied to join NATO again in 2019.
Why Ukraine is important for NATO as an ally?
There are two ways to look into it. Ukraine is the second largest country in the Europe and holds a strategic geolocation closer to the Russian Federation. That’s favorable to NATO. But, then the southern part of Ukraine borders Black Sea. Whoever controls the Black Sea, controls the Europe. Turkey may have been giving access to the Black Sea to both Russians and the US but they are not reliable as they made arms deal with the Russian Federation. Therefore, Ukraine becomes more strategically important.
The Russian plan
You could only anticipate what the Russian Federation is thinking at this time and what they could do in future.
Donetsk People's Republic (DPR or DNR) and
Luhansk People's Republic (or Lugansk People’s Republic) were in a constant fight with the government of
Ukraine for freedom and recognition as independent states. In February 2022, the Russian Federation intervened and recognised both independent states. An easy way for the Russian Federation is to disintegrate
Ukraine from the southern side, create more allies, and then take control of the Black Sea. This will make matters worse for the NATO as then they have to lure several smaller nations to join them.
Outcome: From NATO’s point of view
The entire event is seen as a war or Russian aggression in the Eastern Europe which would give NATO more fuel to partner with Eastern European countries in future.
Ukraine (or whatever will be left of it) will be used as an example to lure other countries to join them.
Outcome: A reality
Ukraine only got the verbal support through meetings, conferences, social media, and media. Several other European countries chose not to directly engage with the Russian Federation but send defensive weapons to
Ukraine in order to play safe. The outcome seems to be a harsh reality that
Ukraine will only be used as an example for other prospective NATO members. My loose guess is that
Kazakhstan might try to join NATO in a few years.
Amid the recent tensions, the Russian Federation might use tactical nuclear weapons to end the war as mentioned in their doctrine if the west try to engage more or
Ukraine doesn’t agree for a truce. Tactical weapons are short-range missiles that can cause a milder destruction as compared to the strategic ones. The mainstream media might claim that the weapons will be strategic to create a negative narrative against the Russian Federation.